Mercedes
WATCHLIST
Seat 1 / Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit87
Seat 2 / George Russell
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit85
Independent fan project. Grid Forecast is unofficial and not affiliated with Formula 1, FIA, teams, drivers or broadcasters.
2027 silly season / Unofficial transfer intelligence
Silly Season War Room
Track every contract, rumour, seat risk, academy prospect and transfer domino before it happens. Sourced facts and modeled scenarios are clearly separated.
64/100Grid stability
7Hot seats
0Curated rumours
16Scenario triggers
How the model works
Sourced contracts, curated rumours and public race performance feed the model. Fit, probability and seat risk describe different things.
What is fact vs prediction?
Green marks sourced or stable context. Amber marks watchlist uncertainty. Blue marks modeled-only paths.
01 / Seat stability board
Every current constructor seat58
unknown
unknown
Ferrari
HIGH RISK
Seat 1 / Charles Leclerc
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit83
Seat 2 / Lewis Hamilton
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit81
McLaren
LOCKED IN
Seat 1 / Lando Norris
Multi-year deal
Seat fit90
Seat 2 / Oscar Piastri
Multi-year deal
Seat fit88
Red Bull
WATCHLIST
Seat 1 / Max Verstappen
Confirmed through 2028
Seat fit85
Seat 2 / Isack Hadjar
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit74
Alpine F1 Team
LIKELY STAYING
Seat 1 / Pierre Gasly
Confirmed through 2028
Seat fit87
Seat 2 / Franco Colapinto
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit76
RB F1 Team
HIGH RISK
Seat 1 / Liam Lawson
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit77
Seat 2 / Arvid Lindblad
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit69
Haas F1 Team
HIGH RISK
Seat 1 / Oliver Bearman
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit79
Seat 2 / Esteban Ocon
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit73
Williams
HIGH RISK
Seat 1 / Carlos Sainz
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit72
Seat 2 / Alexander Albon
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit72
Audi
WATCHLIST
Seat 1 / Gabriel Bortoleto
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit74
Seat 2 / Nico Hulkenberg
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit70
Cadillac F1 Team
LOCKED IN
Seat 1 / Valtteri Bottas
Multi-year deal
Seat fit75
Seat 2 / Sergio Perez
Multi-year deal
Seat fit73
Aston Martin
HIGH RISK
Seat 1 / Lance Stroll
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit65
Seat 2 / Fernando Alonso
Contract not sourced yet. Excluded from contract-weighted scoring.
Seat fit68
What this meansHow unstable a seat is based on sourced contract term, performance and team-planning signals. Seat fit combines contract stability, driver performance, and team alignment. It does not guarantee a move.
02 / Hot seats
Movement this monthArvid Lindblad
RB F1 Team / Team planning watchlist
67
+4 this month
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari / Team planning watchlist
66
+9 this month
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari / Team planning watchlist
62
+14 this month
Lance Stroll
Aston Martin / Zero points — performance pressure this season
60
+19 this month
Isack Hadjar
Red Bull / Team planning watchlist
59
+7 this month
George Russell
Mercedes / Team planning watchlist
58
+12 this month
Sergio Perez
Cadillac F1 Team / Zero points — performance pressure this season
58
+17 this month
What this meansSeat-risk movement is modeled, not a reported contract event.
Rumour heat map
Curated source links only| Driver | MER | FER | MCL | RBR | CAD | AMR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | ||||||
| Lando Norris | ||||||
| Isack Hadjar |
What this meansNo link means no curated link in the manual feed, not proof that no discussion exists.